Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this both predict 21 st -century outlooks with slow income convergence compared to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank groups, could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections 2100 GDP capita, more accurate predictions 2010s rates than International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased low-income group. might therefore represent best-case—not worst-case—scenario 21st-century convergence. Futures projects high poverty population growth, moderate energy demands carbon dioxide emissions, within Pathway range.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Communications earth & environment

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2662-4435']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7